Indonesia prepares to execute B40 in January


Because case, costs may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states


B40 will need additional 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI says


Malaysia palm oil criteria at greatest since mid-2022


India may withdraw import tax trek amidst inflation, Mistry states


(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria cost)


By Bernadette Christina


NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however costs are anticipated to stay elevated due to scheduled growth of the nation's biodiesel mandate, market experts stated.


The palm oil criteria price in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, lifted by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the compulsory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to lower fuel imports.


Palm oil output next year in leading producer Indonesia is expected to recuperate by 1.5 million metric lots compared with a projected drop of simply over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.


Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, stated he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million heap drop in 2024.


While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from elsewhere and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.


Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip slightly next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million tons in 2024.


"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.


'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE


The cost surge in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke stated, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.


The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million tons will be needed for B40 application, wearing down export supply.


The existing palm oil premium has actually currently caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.


Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.


Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest given that mid-2022.


"Sentiment today is red-hot and very bullish, we have to take care," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej International.


He anticipated the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.


Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to


consider postponing


B40 application on concern about its impact on food customers.


Meanwhile, Mistry expected top palm oil importer India to withdraw its


import duty hike


enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)